How we show wildfire risk

What does the wildfire layer show?

How likely a place is to burn, based on the landscape. It combines what is growing there, how dry it gets, the shape of the land, and how fire has moved through the area in the past.

Steep, dry, wooded ground scores high. Irrigated farmland and dense city blocks score low. You can see it on the wildfire map.

Is this a prediction?

No. It describes conditions, not events. A high score means the ingredients for a serious fire are present. It does not mean one is coming, and a low score is not a promise.

Fires need an ignition and the wrong weather on the wrong day. Neither of those is on the map.

Why does my street look different from the hill behind it?

Because the layer follows the land rather than the address. Hazard changes fast over short distances. A house at the bottom of a canyon and a house on the ridge above it face different situations, and the map will show that.

This is why a county-level figure is close to useless on its own. It averages the ridge and the valley floor into one number that describes neither.

Does it account for my house?

No, and this is the biggest limit. The layer describes the landscape, not the building on it.

Two identical lots can face very different odds depending on the roof, the vents, the windows, and whether the plants have been cleared back from the walls. Those things matter a great deal and none of them are visible from satellite data. A high-hazard lot with a hardened house can be a better bet than a moderate lot with a wood-shake roof and shrubs against the siding.

Why does it matter for a home search?

Mostly insurance. In several states, insurers have stopped writing new policies in higher-hazard areas, or have raised premiums sharply. That turns a hazard score into a monthly cost, and sometimes into a question of whether you can get covered at all.

It is worth getting an insurance quote for a specific address before you commit to it. That is true anywhere, and it is much more true here.

Where does the data come from?

The US Forest Service publishes a national wildfire hazard layer. We use it as published and show it at a resolution fine enough to see the difference between one side of a valley and the other.

It is updated on a multi-year cycle rather than continuously. Every page showing it carries the date we last checked.

What should I do with it?

Use it to narrow down where to look, then ask specific questions about anywhere you are serious about. What did the last big fire in this area do? Is there more than one road out? What does insurance cost here, from an actual quote rather than an estimate?

The wildfire layer is on the map and free to use.